There is an old war story that pops up in business-school classroom discussions regularly that goes something like this: In the early days of World War I, combat planes would go out on missions in the morning and most would come back later in the day. Of those that made it back, many would be sporting bullet holes from enemy fire.
As the mechanics worked to put the planes back into fighting shape for the next day, they eventually started to “reinforce” the planes in those areas where they would typically see damage. The mechanics reasoned that while adding the extra weight of the reinforcement material would sacrifice a little range and maneuverability, it would make the planes safer, and would lead to fewer repairs next time.
Not knowing the original source of the story, I hope it is a fable, since the “real lesson” to be learned from the bullet holes is the exact opposite of what the conventional wisdom was. The only bullet damage the mechanics ever saw was the non-lethal kind, so by definition, the mechanics should have been more concerned with reinforcing those parts of the plane where they had never seen damage.
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November 8th, 2006
As marketers from a number of agriculture-related industries have been aware for several years, not all baby-boomers are moving their empty nests to the beach, golf community or urban downtown. A noticeable number are embracing the “ruralpolitan” lifestyle and moving to the country.
According to Farm Industry News, ruralpolitans are “a fast-growing group of farmers with either single or double incomes derived off the farm. This group represents a whopping 47% of all U.S. farm households. A typical double-income ruralpolitan earns an income of about $85,000 a year but posts about a $3,000 loss on the farm.”
From the perspective of ag-related marketers, a big increase in the number of wealthy, high income, non-bottom line focused farmers must seem like a morphing of Green Acres and The Twilight Zone…but in a good way. A closer look at the numbers suggests that there may be generational plot device at work, with the Baby Boomer generation playing the rural-loving Oliver Douglas while Generations X & Y seem more likely to embrace Lisa Douglas’ Park Avenue point of view.
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October 29th, 2006
Given that the population is not growing fast (see our October 18 post), historically speaking, the very high levels of immigration we have seen over the past 10 years would represent a significant change in the composition of our population.
Putting a few data points on some obvious issues – Hispanics now constitute the largest minority in the US with 14% – edging out Blacks with 13% of the population. Asians, by comparison represent just fewer than 5% of the population.
In the near term, Hispanics will continue to represent a growing share of the population – their growth rate in 2004 was 3.04, more than 3 times the US average. It is remarkable that Hispanics accounted for 50% of the US population growth from 2003-04.
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October 25th, 2006
According to the US Census Bureau, on October 17, 2006 the US population reached the landmark level of 300 million. As monumental as that moment was, it represented a missed opportunity to point out a number of important yet complex trends playing out within the US population in favor of a simple, unimportant one. While the change in the overall population (the growth rate) is remarkably unremarkable, the change in the composition of the population is anything but that.
The simple facts are, the US population was estimated at about 296.5 million in 2005 and has been growing at just over 1% per year since 1990 (US Census Data, Lafayette Associates Analysis). To be sure the current population growth rate is on a strong up-trend, having risen in each of the past 19 years. In 2006, the population is expected to grow 1.23%, which would be the highest rate since 1971.
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October 18th, 2006
