The University of Michigan’s Index of Consumer Sentiment (CSI) preliminary reading for April 2026 hit an all-time 48-year low of 47.6 — signaling that tough times are likely to persist across many segments of the US economy, particularly for makers and sellers of discretionary goods and services.
The April 2026 CSI reading of 47.6 is the lowest on record, arriving after several consecutive years of already-depressed sentiment.
Historical Context
The University of Michigan began publishing its CSI in the early 1950s and has released it monthly since January 1978. Confining this analysis to that period, the index has averaged 83.9 over nearly five decades. It reached its peak during the late 1990s boom, topping out at 112.0 in January 2000.
April 2026’s reading of 47.6 is the lowest on record by a couple of points — and it arrives after several consecutive years of already-depressed sentiment.
Trends
Plotting the data reveals two notable patterns. First, the past six years — spanning the COVID era and its aftermath — show the lowest sustained readings in the index’s history, rivaled only by the Iran hostage crisis period of the early 1980s. Second, most prior episodes of low consumer sentiment were short-lived, typically lasting only a few months before rebounding. The current downturn is a stark exception.
How Low Is Low?
Using the bottom 5% of all monthly observations as a threshold for “low” sentiment, 29 of the 580 months on record qualify. Of those 29 months, 17 — nearly two-thirds (65.5%) — have occurred in just the past six years.
When Do Low CSI Scores Occur?
Historically, the economy would encounter difficulty, post low CSI scores for a few months, and then revert toward the long-run average. These episodes have consistently coincided with major national crises:
| Period | Trigger |
|---|---|
| Mar–Jun 1980 | Iran hostage crisis |
| May–Jun, Oct–Nov 2008; Feb–Mar 2009 | Global financial crisis |
| Aug 2011 | Uncertainty over economic policy |
| May–Dec 2022; May 2023 | Post-COVID inflation and the war in Ukraine |
| Mar–May 2025; Aug–Dec 2025; Jan–Apr 2026 | Tariff-driven inflation and the war with Iran |
Where Do Things Stand Now?
The COVID and post-COVID period left a lasting mark on consumer attitudes. The Biden administration saw seven low-CSI months during 2022–23, though most of 2024 produced readings in the 70s — below average, but closer to historical norms.
The second Trump administration’s tariff agenda and the outbreak of war with Iran have since driven sentiment sharply lower. Of the 15 months of the second Trump administration, 12 have produced low CSI readings — accounting for more than 40% of all such readings ever recorded.
Conclusion
Consumer sentiment is both a critical barometer of economic health and a key driver of business viability for companies selling big-ticket and discretionary goods and services. What matters most right now is not just how low sentiment has fallen, but how long it has stayed there.
We are currently in the longest sustained period of low CSI scores in the index’s history, and the fact that we just posted an all-time low suggests that any meaningful recovery in consumer confidence is still months away.